The 2026 51-State Tree Risk Index

The finding in one sentence: tree risk peaks where heavy canopy meets freezing-band winters and real wind — Connecticut leads the 2026 index at 78.2/100, and the top ten mixes ice-belt forest states with wind-alley canopy states.

The full ranking

Composite score = 30% severe wind & tornado exposure + 25% winter loading + 25% canopy cover + 20% housing exposure. Every subscore is a 0–100 percentile rank across the 51 jurisdictions. Highlighted rows are states inside the TreeCrewFinder referral network.

#	State	Composite	Wind/Tornado	Winter Load	Canopy	Exposure
1	Connecticut	78.2	56	94	78	92
2	Rhode Island	73.4	44	96	68	96
3	Massachusetts	72.6	36	98	74	94
4	Pennsylvania	70.6	42	90	78	80
5	District of Columbia	69.5	100	60	18	100
6	Maryland	69.5	80	64	46	90
7	New York	69.3	32	86	84	86
8	Tennessee	67.8	76	70	62	60
9	Alabama	67.5	96	26	92	46
10	New Hampshire	67.1	30	88	98	58
11	Virginia	66.8	58	58	82	72
12	North Carolina	65.6	66	50	74	74
13	Kentucky	65.5	74	74	56	54
14	South Carolina	65.0	82	22	90	62
15	Mississippi	63.7	98	24	86	34
16	New Jersey	63.6	40	80	48	98
17	Illinois	62.6	90	68	12	78
18	Indiana	62.0	78	84	16	68
19	Ohio	61.6	64	76	28	82
20	West Virginia	60.1	24	82	96	42
21	Georgia	58.3	70	10	88	64
22	Florida	57.0	84	0	60	84
23	Arkansas	56.9	68	52	70	30
24	Vermont	55.5	20	72	94	40
25	Washington	55.3	12	100	62	56
26	Delaware	54.7	52	62	24	88
27	Louisiana	54.7	94	0	66	50
28	Michigan	54.4	34	54	70	66
29	Missouri	54.4	72	56	40	44
30	Maine	51.7	18	66	100	24
31	Wisconsin	49.6	54	36	56	52
32	Iowa	45.8	88	44	8	32
33	Oklahoma	45.4	86	32	24	28
34	Oregon	42.7	6	92	54	22
35	Kansas	40.6	92	30	6	20
36	Colorado	39.6	48	46	34	26
37	Minnesota	38.1	60	16	34	38
38	California	37.5	16	38	32	76
39	Idaho	37.4	10	78	50	12
40	Texas	37.1	50	6	44	48
41	Hawaii	35.4	28	0	52	70
42	Nebraska	28.9	62	28	2	14
43	Utah	25.3	4	48	34	18
44	New Mexico	20.6	22	18	30	10
45	Wyoming	20.2	26	34	14	2
46	Arizona	19.9	14	14	20	36
47	South Dakota	18.6	38	20	4	6
48	Montana	18.2	8	38	22	4
49	North Dakota	17.0	46	8	0	6
50	Nevada	16.8	2	42	10	16
51	Alaska	13.0	0	12	40	0

Sources: NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database (2004–2023); NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance winter (Dec–Feb) precipitation and mean temperature, 1995–2024; USFS Forest Inventory & Analysis forest-cover shares; U.S. Census Bureau ACS 2023 housing counts and land areas. Alaska, Hawaii, and DC winter values use documented regional approximations (see methodology).

What the pattern shows

Three archetypes fill the top of the table. The ice-belt forest states — New England's heavily wooded north — pair 60–90% canopy with winter temperatures that sit precisely in the freezing-rain band, so storms plate every limb with load-bearing ice. The wind-alley canopy states — the South from Georgia through the Carolinas into east Texas — grow tall, fast, soft-wooded trees directly in tornado and hurricane-remnant country. And the collision states — Pennsylvania, Missouri, New York among them — get a genuine share of both hazards across an old, dense residential canopy. At the bottom of the table sit the places with weather but no trees (the high Plains) or trees but gentle loading (the mild Pacific coast).

Methodology, honestly

Wind & tornado (30%): average annual tornado events per state, 2004–2023, from NOAA SPC's actual-tornadoes database, normalized by land area to events per 10,000 square miles, then percentile-ranked. Tornado density is our proxy for the broader severe-convective-wind climatology — the same storm systems that produce most non-tornadic tree-killing wind.

Winter loading (25%): NOAA Climate-at-a-Glance December–February precipitation (1995–2024 average), weighted by proximity of mean winter temperature to 28°F — the center of the band where freezing rain and heavy wet snow accrete on limbs. A state that's cold AND wet in exactly that band (northern New England) scores high; a state that's frigid-dry (North Dakota) or warm-wet (Louisiana) scores low. Alaska, Hawaii, and DC are outside the CAG dataset; we substitute documented regional values and flag them here.

Canopy (25%): forest land as a share of total land area, per USFS Forest Inventory & Analysis published state shares. More canopy = more trees positioned to fail.

Exposure (20%): Census housing units per square mile of land — the target-density term. A falling tree in an empty forest is ecology; over a roof it's a claim.

Limitations: this is a state-scale relative index, not a property-level prediction. It doesn't capture within-state variation (coastal vs. mountain), species-level fragility, hurricane tracks (partially reflected in the wind proxy), or maintenance quality. We publish the full dataset so anyone can reweight it — if you think canopy deserves 40%, the CSV is yours.

Use this data

The complete dataset — every subscore and every input — is free to download and licensed CC BY 4.0: use it, republish it, build on it, with attribution to TreeCrewFinder and a link to this page. Press and methodology questions: hello@treecrewfinder.com.

⬇ tree-risk-index-2026.csv

Questions about the index

Which state has the highest tree risk in 2026?

By our composite index, Connecticut ranks #1 at 78.2/100, driven by its combination of severe-wind exposure, winter loading, canopy cover, and housing density. The top five: Connecticut (78.2), Rhode Island (73.4), Massachusetts (72.6), Pennsylvania (70.6), District of Columbia (69.5).

How is the Tree Risk Index calculated?

Four subscores, each a 0–100 percentile rank across the 50 states and DC: severe wind & tornado exposure (30% weight, from NOAA SPC's tornado database, 2004–2023 average annual events per 10,000 sq mi), winter loading (25%, NOAA winter precipitation weighted by how close mean winter temperature sits to the freezing band where ice and wet-snow accretion peak), tree canopy (25%, USFS forest-cover share of land area), and housing exposure (20%, Census housing units per square mile — trees only damage what's under them). The weighted composite is the ranking.

Is this index a prediction that trees will fall on my house?

No — it's a state-scale model of relative exposure, not a forecast for any property. Within every state, risk varies enormously street to street: species, tree age, soil, and maintenance history dominate at the individual-tree level. The index tells you which states' homeowners face the most tree-versus-weather conflict on average; a professional assessment tells you about YOUR tree.

Can I use this data in my own reporting or research?

Yes — the full dataset is published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). Download the CSV, use it, republish it, build on it; just credit TreeCrewFinder with a link. Journalists and researchers can reach us at hello@treecrewfinder.com for methodology questions.

Why do heavily forested northern states rank so high?

Because tree risk is a collision of supply and stress: states like New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine pair enormous canopy cover with winters that sit exactly in the ice-accretion temperature band — the freezing-rain sweet spot that loads limbs past their breaking strength. The Plains states run the opposite pattern: extreme wind scores over minimal canopy. The top of the table belongs to states that have both trees and weather.

Where Trees Fall Most: The 2026 51-State Tree Risk Index

The top 5

The full ranking

What the pattern shows

Methodology, honestly

Use this data

Questions about the index

Live in a high-risk state? Get ahead of the season.